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E-Commerce in Vietnam: 2025 Outlook

· By Opollo Team · 3 min read

Vietnam’s e-commerce market in 2025 is set to reach new heights. Discover market size, growth drivers, consumer behavior, and strategies from the latest published reports.

Introduction

Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets in Southeast Asia. In 2024, online retail not only surged in size but also cemented itself as a vital driver of the national digital economy. Now, as we enter 2025, brands and retailers are asking: Where is Vietnam’s e-commerce headed?

This article provides a data-backed 2025 outlook. We will explore market size, growth trends, consumer behavior, challenges, and strategies for businesses to succeed in this dynamic landscape. All figures are taken from credible reports — no assumptions or fabricated numbers.

Table of Contents

  1. Market Size & Growth Trajectory
  2. Key Drivers Accelerating Growth
  3. Consumer Behavior & Channel Trends
  4. Challenges & Risks
  5. Strategic Imperatives for 2025
  6. Conclusion

1. Market Size & Growth Trajectory

2024 as a Benchmark

  • Vietnam’s e-commerce market exceeded USD 25 billion in 2024, growing by about 20 % year-on-year .
  • This represented 9 % of the country’s total retail sales of goods and services .
  • On major platforms (Shopee, Lazada, TikTok Shop, Tiki), Vietnamese consumers spent USD 16 billion in 2024, up 15.9 % compared to 2023 .
  • According to the Vietnam E-Business Report 2025, the sector saw up to 27 % annual growth in 2024 .

2025 Forecast

  • Industry data suggests e-commerce revenue in Vietnam could grow another 10–15 % in 2025, reaching around USD 28–29 billion .
  • PCMI forecasts that by 2027, the market could hit USD 44 billion, growing at a CAGR of ~23 % from 2024–2027 .
  • Social commerce is projected to grow 25.4 % in 2025, reaching USD 5.0 billion .

2. Key Drivers Accelerating Growth

Smartphone & Internet Penetration

  • Around 96 % of consumers use smartphones for online shopping .
  • This mobile-first trend makes app optimization and seamless UX critical for brands.

Digital Payments

  • Cash-on-delivery (COD) still dominates, accounting for 67 % of e-commerce transactions in 2024 .
  • Digital wallets (~18 %), credit cards (~8 %), and BNPL (~2 %) are rising.
  • BNPL is gaining traction, with 49 % of consumers showing interest .

Platform Innovation

  • TikTok Shop’s rise is reshaping competition. In 2024, it captured around 24 % market share, second only to Shopee .
  • In H1 2025, Vietnam’s online retail sales reached VND 202.3 trillion (~USD 7.96 billion), up 41.52 % YoY .
  • Product volumes grew 25.44 %, hitting ~1.92 billion units .

Social & Live Commerce

  • Social commerce is mainstream, projected to hit USD 5 billion in 2025 .
  • Live commerce (shop while watching video) is gaining traction, following the SEA trend where video commerce made up ~20 % of GMV .

Policy & Regulation

  • Vietnam’s digital transformation policies are supporting adoption .
  • The U.S. Department of Commerce notes the sector has grown at ~30 % annually in recent years .

Spending Power

  • Average online spending per capita in 2024 was USD 275 .
  • Consumers made ~4 online purchases per month .

Payment Preferences

  • COD (~67 %) dominates but creates inefficiencies .
  • Digital wallets (MoMo, ZaloPay) and BNPL are expected to accelerate.

Platform Competition

  • Shopee retained the largest share (~65 % of GMV in 2024).
  • TikTok Shop followed at ~28 %, with the fastest growth (69 % YoY in early 2025) .
  • Lazada and Tiki remain secondary but relevant players.
  • Shoppers are shifting from monthly to weekly online purchases .
  • Key categories: groceries, cosmetics, electronics, and F&B.

4. Challenges & Risks

  • Logistics & Last-Mile Costs – Delivery to rural areas remains costly.
  • High COD Dependency – Drives up returns and cash handling issues.
  • Platform Saturation – Shopee & TikTok dominate market share.
  • Profitability Pressure – Discounts, commissions, and ad costs reduce margins.
  • Regulatory Uncertainty – Tax and data protection laws may increase complexity.

5. Strategic Imperatives for 2025

  1. Invest in OMS & Automation – A modern Order Management System (OMS software) centralizes multi-channel orders, reduces errors, and enables scale.
  2. Leverage Social & Live Commerce – TikTok Shop and livestreams are now vital sales channels.
  3. Optimize Logistics & Fulfillment – Use micro-warehousing and smarter routing.
  4. Expand Payment Options – Promote e-wallets and BNPL to reduce COD reliance.
  5. Personalize with Data – Tailor offers with behavioral analytics.
  6. Strengthen Partnerships – Work closely with platforms, 3PLs, and fintech providers.

Conclusion

Vietnam’s e-commerce market remains on a strong upward path in 2025. With overall growth projected at 10–15 %, and social commerce surging 25 %, opportunities are significant.

Brands that combine operational excellence (OMS, automation, logistics) with channel innovation (social and live commerce) will lead the pack. As Vietnam continues to digitize, this is the moment for businesses to scale smarter.

References

  1. Vietnam E-Business Report 2025 – VECOM
  2. Vietnam Government Portal – Vietnam’s E-commerce Market Up 20% in 2024
  3. The Investor – Vietnamese Consumers Spend $16 Bln on Online Platforms in 2024
  4. GlobeNewswire – Vietnam Social Commerce Intelligence Report 2025
  5. Payments & Commerce Market Intelligence – Vietnam E-commerce Market Data
  6. TGM Research – Vietnam E-commerce Trends 2025
  7. VnEconomy – E-commerce in Upward Trend (H1 2025)
  8. Trade.gov – Vietnam E-commerce (Country Commercial Guide)
  9. Bain & Company – E-Conomy SEA 2024 Report

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Updated on Oct 10, 2025